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against the gods book summary

Book Review Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk Reviewed by S. L. Zabell Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk Peter L. Bernstein John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1996 ISBN 0-471-12104-5 xi + 383 pp. *getAbstract is summarizing much more than books. Bold – You’ll find arguments that may break with predominant views. I'm still looking for that book (recommendations welcome!). The expected winning, in other words, is infinite. Select the sections that are relevant to you. Justice, like a terrible storm, is about to break upon them. All prefer at least one of these genres, so this book is potentially suitable for them. This book is about how our perception of risk, especially with respect to decisions with financial outcomes, advanced (rather slowly) from … It's told in separate narratives by different people near the royal family. Visionary – You’ll get a glimpse of the future and what it might mean for you. In a rage at the turn of events against the Latins, Turnus announces to Latinus his intention to fight Aeneas and win Lavinia 's hand. Jove calls a council of the gods on Mount Olympus. —Business Week "Deserves to be, and surely will be, widely read." Hot Topic – You’ll find yourself in the middle of a highly debated issue. Odysseus visits his father, Laertes, who seems old and broken. Bernoulli's answer to the paradox was simple but profound in its effects. Venus responds first, describing the Trojans' great suffering, Turnus 's pride, Allecto 's troublemaking, and more. Of course, the 2008 financial crisis cast probabilistic models and financial engineering as global market villains. In modern economics, one model of rational decision making is the expected utility hypothesis Decisions are made with the goal of maximizing one's expected satisfaction (back to Bernoulli again). The Rage Against God is meant to be a grown-up substitute for more shouting matches. 1738 The analysis of risk as a factor shaping decisions emerged from the solution to the St. Petersburg paradox presented by Daniel Bernoulli, whose family of geniuses supports the thesis of Francis Galton's Hereditary Genius, that genius runs in the genes. THE PASCAL-FERMAT ANSWER TO THE PROBLEM OF POINTS: AN EXAMPLE. We look at every kind of content that may matter to our audience: books, but also articles, reports, videos and podcasts. —Worth Besides, in classical Greek, the word atheos (“not-god”) is usually used to mean “godless” or “against-the-gods”, rather than a person who does not believe that gods exist. . Virgil begins his epic poem with a succinct statement of its theme: He will sing of war and the man — Aeneas — who, driven by fate, sailed from Troy's shores to Italy, where he founded a city called Lavinium, the precursor of Rome. Within limits, the project is a success. Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it.Business WeekDeserves to be, and surely will be, widely read.The Economist[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world.WorthNo one else could have written a book of such central importance … Here's what the ratings mean: Applicable – You’ll get advice that can be directly applied in the workplace or in everyday situations. Thus in the worldview of ancient Greece, a man's destiny swayed with the whim of the gods, logic prevailed over experimentation, and the use of letters for numbers inhibited man's ability to calculate. This book starts with the birth of Akhenaten and follows the palace intrigue around who really has the power in Egypt. The book begins with a brief history of modern Ancient Near East (ANE) studies, beginning with Napoleon’s Egypt expedition and the discover and decoding of the Rosetta Stone, 1798-1799. The foundation for modern decision theory was laid. Eloquent – You’ll enjoy a masterfully written or presented text. Inspiring – You’ll want to put into practice what you’ve read immediately. Together with his highly successful predecessor, Capital Ideas The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street (The Free Press, New York, 1992), Bernstein has laid out a remarkably insightful and entertaining history of the "science" of finance, including fascinating descriptions of the people who drove the development of modern financial economics. By the end of the book, Bernstein has shown us how interpretations of rational behavior in the presence of risk have changed as the tools to understand decision making have changed. Bernstein's earlier work, Ideas, emphasized the advances emerging from the notion that investors are rational and security markets are efficient It focused on modern portfolio theory and its implications for security prices, and on the development of new instruments, like equity options. Drury wrote a 1977 sequel, Return to Thebes, and a 1980 nonfiction book about Egypt. 1953 Publication of The Theory of Games by John von Neumann, mathematician and early computer scientist, and economist Oskar Morgenstern. The most interesting part of this discussion is Bernstein's presentation of the path-breaking work of Daniel Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky; they were experimental psychologists whose work, called "prospect theory," is often used by students of behavioral finance to explain a variety of financial anomalies. See Fagles and Knox (pp. New York: John Wiley , Sons, Inc., 1996. But the St. Petersburg paradox, named for the city in which Bernoulli presented his answer, gives a game that real-world gamblers would not pay the actuarial value to play, A fair coin is flipped until a head comes up, at which point the game stops and the gambler receives $2 raised to the power of the number of that flip. However, the ancient Greek pioneers of science and philosophy did not undertake the study of probability. Pandareus father of the nightingale. While looking into your inquiry, I can see that your Free Trial was successfully activated. Eye opening – You’ll be offered highly surprising insights. Recommendation. At getAbstract, we summarize books* that help people understand the world and make it better. This work is a minor classic of financial literature. Beginning with Greek mythology, Bernstein shows how cultural ideas about risk and probability evolved through Arab mathematics, the European Enlightenment and Chicago School economics. Bernstein acquaints us with the many new ways of interpreting and measuring risk, and with the emerging field of behavioral finance, which recognizes and attempts to explain anomalies in finance, examples in which rational explanations fail. He says he's strong enough, and Venus won't be able to protect Aeneas when they fight man-to-man. Gambling was part of the Greeks’ creation myth. The probability that Mr. H would have won 4 or more of the remaining 9 flips, bringing the number of heads to at least 8 and earning him the full $100, is 0.7461. Gods begins with a sweeping proposition Modern thinking began when man abandoned the belief that events are due to the whim of the gods and embraced the notion that we are active, independent agents who can manage risks. Helpful – You’ll take-away practical advice that will help you get better at what you do. Summary and Analysis Book 20 - Portents Gather Summary. Books we rate below 5 won’t be summarized. Thomas Bayes's analysis of the mixing of old and new information in the formation of probability estimates. Just as hated in this life as the previous one, Che must overcome his own … Synopsis. … 1877 Development of the concept of regression toward the mean, applied to human characteristics by Francis Galton, the snobbish cousin to Charles Darwin, who created the unfortunate pseudo-science of "eugenics.". The expected winning, which is the maximum amount a gambler would offer to play the game, is the sum of all the possible payoffs, each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. Throwing himself off a cliff to spite his pursuers, Yun Che is reincarnated as Xiao Che, a recently poisoned teen in another realm. Book Review- The Misfortunes of Prosperity, Book Review, The Motley Fool Investment Guide. —The Economist "[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world." (Reinsurance in its simplest form is an insurance bought by an insurance company to spread the risk). "A lively panoramic book . This book, written in the 1940s, analyzed human interactions as a source of risk. Among other books, he wrote Economist on Wall Street and The Price of Prosperity. Innovative – You can expect some truly fresh ideas and insights on brand-new products or trends. Throughout, Bernstein's subtext is an investigation of the meaning of rationality and of the limits of rationality in explaining our choices. Scientific – You’ll get facts and figures grounded in scientific research. We rate each piece of content on a scale of 1–10 with regard to these two core criteria. Glossary. In the last quarter of Gods, Bernstein focuses on the assumption that human choices are "rational," meaning that they are derived logically from a few axioms. Peter Bernstein's latest book, Against the Gods The Remarkable Story of Risk, establishes his standing as America's preeminent scholar-practitioner in the field of finance. Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, was published by John Wiley & Sons in September 1996 and won the Edwin G. Booz Prize for the most insightful, innovative management book published in 1996. Whatever we select for our library has to excel in one or the other of these two core criteria: Enlightening – You’ll learn things that will inform and improve your decisions. 1764 Posthumous publication of the Rev. 1900Louis Bachelier's doctoral dissertation, "The Theory of Speculation," laid the foundation for modern finance and provided the underpinnings for modern option pricing models, although it was poorly received by his professors at the Sorbonne. Against the Gods is a different beast entirely: a popular history of statistics and probability, or more accurately, of the people who developed statistics and probability, that turns into a discussion of stock market portfolio strategies (not, thankfully, from a self-help … But no gambler would wager all his or her wealth to play. He writes in a spare, straightforward style, and manages to convey the essentials of financial theory and the essences of great economists without losing the reader in a maze of equations. He almost gets us to move into the castle-in-the-air, the notion that we are, in fact, rational. Then, in order to move ahead, they needed numbers. Among the human tendencies documented by Kahneman and Tversky are extrapolation from small and unreliable samples (I had a car accident at that intersection, therefore that intersection is more dangerous than others), giving greater weight to catastrophic outcomes than their low probabilities warrant (the Three Mile Island effect), loss aversion, and mental accounting. Comprehensive – You’ll find every aspect of the subject matter covered. I came across this book when I was searching for a book that covers the history of re-insurance industry. Bernoulli's solution introduced risk -- and aversion to risk -- into the language of decision making; it was the first statement of a fundamental axiom of economic theory, that diminishing returns prevail; and it is the foundation of the most widely applied theory of "rational" decision making--that economic agents maximize their expected utility, not their expected wealth. Hello Tim, we apologize for any inconvenience. 1733 The development of the normal probability distribution by Abraham de Moivre, a French Protestant transplanted to England who never held a proper academic position. $27.95. Summary and Analysis Book I Summary. In this part of Gods Bernstein tips his hand, telling us that although the assumption of rational behavior is a useful starting point, it describes the real world only up to a point. Those insights came in the seventeenth century, in the analysis by Blaise Pascal, a dissolute who became a religious zealot, and Pierre de Fermat, a lawyer whose genius was in mathematics, of a gambling problem first proposed in the fifteenth century. This work is a minor classic of financial literature. Peter L. Bernstein heads Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., an economic consultancy for institutional investors. It is a combination of action, comedy, fantasy, adventure, martial arts, romance, and other genres, so there is something interesting for many readers. Against the Gods: the Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein John Wiley & Sons, 383 pages, $27.95 A review by John Adams, University College London, for the THES, 25.11.96 Who dares wins - and also often loses, as investors in the channel tunnel have been discovering. Against the Gods is a classic, a 1996 tour de force by the late Peter Bernstein. The invention of zero allowed people to calculate using merely 10 symbols: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. Akhenaten upset the powerful priests of the god Amon when he replaced all the gods of Egypt with the single god Aten, the sun. Leonardo Pisano, known as an adult – and today – as Fibonacci, explored the power and possibility of Arabic numbers in Liber Abaci, or Book of the Abacus. A God Against the Gods is a 1976 historical novel by political novelist Allen Drury, which chronicles ancient Egyptian Pharaoh Akhenaten's attempt to establish a new religion in Egypt. Bernstein believes that "we are rational as far as it goes." Arabs began using it in about A.D. 700, brought it out of India and spread it through the world. The second chapter of the book addresses the concept of religion and how it is viewed from different religious bases. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today. ... his new book is largely a sober piece of work. Because the game involves Bernoulli trials (each flip has the same probability of heads, and the results on one flip are independent of the results on previous flips), the binomial distribution (based on Pascal's Triangle) gives the answer. For beginners – You’ll find this to be a good primer if you’re a learner with little or no prior experience/knowledge. Against The Gods Peter Bernstein Recommendations and Reviews. . 1973 The development of modern option pricing theory by Fischer Black, an academic nomad, and economist Myron Scholes, published in a paper that was first rejected by many academic journals. To know what he means, read the book. Hunted for possessing a heaven-defying object, Yun Che is a young man in both that life and the next. Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk, Chapter 2, As easy as I, II, III The period covered in the case included the period 1200 to 1700 AD. In effect, they have testified against themselves. “Against the Gods” is the prime example of a series that is steeped in emotion, playing to the common denominators to keep the reader interested. Engaging – You’ll read or watch this all the way through the end. He argued that gamblers do not maximize the expected amount of their net winnings. Our rating helps you sort the titles on your reading list from adequate (5) to brilliant (10). Stated differently, the gambler would calculate the expected winnings and, if pressed, would pay as much as that amount to play the game. Business historian Peter L. Bernstein wrote it during the early 1990s, when faith in the power of quantitative models and financial engineering was at … It searches out the roots of modern finance and provides an interpretation of the history of that "science." Well structured – You’ll find this to be particularly well organized to support its reception or application. Against the Gods summary: Against the G.o.ds is an exciting book of mixed genres. Background – You’ll get contextual knowledge as a frame for informed action or analysis. But by the thirteenth century, new mental tools were in place the Hindu-Arabic numbering system, algebra, accounting, and other necessary equipment for the first insights into the laws of chance. But his good sense and long experience with security markets, supported by the work of behavioral economics, keeps him from entering the front door. Howard Marks. The expected winning is thus the sum of 1, added an infinite number of times. Your highlights will appear here. Mr. H and Mr. T each pay $50 to play a game of points a fair coin will be flipped 15 times, and the $100 stake will go to Mr. H if more heads than tails result, to Mr. T otherwise. But Bernstein puts the emphasis on winning: … Rather, they maximize their "moral utility," the expected satisfaction which the game provides. The concept of zero was one of the most profound innovations in mathematical history. The Hindu numbering system originated in roughly A.D. 500. Loss aversion refers to our tendency, when faced with a choice between a sure loss and an uncertain gamble, to gamble unless the odds are strongly against us; embezzlers will recognize this, as will many investors who avoid selling at a loss in the hope that continuing the gamble will extricate them. 1952 The introduction of modern portfolio theory in a 14 page paper titled "Portfolio Selection," by Harry Markowitz, a graduate student in economics. The book is about the history of money, risk and finance all the way up to the point when most thinking adults completely lost faith in Santa Claus Wall Street (the laggards who missed the 1998 sneak preview lost faith in 2008). Amata cries that if Turnus … Insider’s take – You’ll have the privilege of learning from someone who knows her or his topic inside-out. Against The Gods: the Remarkable Story of Risk. Patrick O'Shaughnessy: "An older book, but a wonderful history of our concept of risk. Pascal and Fermat argue that the $100 should be split according to the probability that each player would have won if the game had continued through the agreed-upon 15 flips. Patrick O'Shaughnessy. It is told in a series of monologues by the various characters. Nor, for that matter, did the philosophers of the Hebrew Talmud, although they used calculations of odds to determine what was permissible under the law. What we say here about books applies to all formats we cover. God Against the Gods focuses on the first stirrings of monotheism in ancient Egypt, traces the losing battle that early Judaism and Christianity fought against polytheism, and focuses on the climax of "the war between God and the gods" during the reigns of two charismatic and visionary Roman emperors -- Constantine, who started the … Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it." Gods serves as a prequel. Mental accounting refers to the tendency to sort decisions into compartments rather than to consider the overall position. "—The Economist"[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world. Concrete Examples – You’ll get practical advice illustrated with examples of real-world applications or anecdotes. "—Worth"No one else could have written a book of such central importance … . All prefer at least one of these genres, so this book is potentially suitable for them. God Against the Gods Jonathan Kirsch has provided a short, but powerful historical look at the rise of monotheism and the fall polytheism, that depending on one’s perspective, might lead one to believe we would be better off with a tolerant form of polytheism versus the forms of monotheism that are the movers and shakers of … In retrospect, that makes Bernstein’s evident admiration for those models seem rather touchingly ingenuous. From that foundation, Bernstein sets off on a whirlwind tour of the development of modern decision theory. If I can assist you further you can contact me at Info@getabstract.com. Analytical – You’ll understand the inner workings of the subject matter. You can login to continue with our trial. 1654 The first use of probability analysis by Blaise Pascal, a brilliant mathematician, and Pierre de Fermat, lawyer and mathematics hobbyist, who jointly solved the problem of points. It is a combination of action, comedy, fantasy, adventure, martial arts, romance, and other genres, so there is something interesting for many readers. Baca novel Against the Gods bahasa indonesia Yukinovel, novel ATG Raw indonesia, novel ATG bahasa indonesia, baca novel ATG Yukinovel, novel ATG indonesia Cycles of greed, treachery, pride, revenge repeat in a myriad of ways that are predictable and yet compelling to read for those who are looking for a straightforward, well written … As the old man laments the loss of his son, Odysseus is overcome and reveals himself. Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it. The muslim child makes the focus of the analysis. He does not recognize his son; Odysseus does not say who he is. An extremely readable history of risk. Against the Gods 逆天邪神 Mythical Abode Mountain, Cloud’s End Cliff, the most dangerous of Azure Cloud Continent’s four deadly areas. Michael Mauboussin. The expected winning in the St. Petersburg game is the infinite series. 514-515) for a thorough consideration. Summary and analysis book 20 - Portents Gather Summary I Summary Deserves to be well! Applications or anecdotes economic consultancy for institutional investors particularly well organized to support its reception or application book, a. This is still one of these genres, so this book is potentially suitable for them 5 to. Is resolute think about the world. serious investor out there... book.... Neumann, mathematician and early computer scientist, and surely will be, widely read. wrote... S End Cliff ’ s End Cliff ’ s Cemetery pioneers of science philosophy. Truly fresh ideas and insights on brand-new products or trends surely will be, and venus wo n't able! India and spread it through the End royal family come through to my email, despite having requested several... Thomas Bayes 's analysis of the book addresses the concept of zero was one of these genres so! Muslim child makes the focus of the limits of rationality in explaining choices!: the Remarkable Story of risk mean: Applicable – You’ll get facts and figures in... Are infinite: … Summary and analysis book 20 - Portents Gather Summary and Economist Morgenstern. Additional dollar of winnings adds a smaller amount to satisfaction sets up ambitious! The infinite series exciting book of mixed genres a minor classic of financial.! A.D. 500 a terrible storm, is infinite want to put into practice what you’ve read immediately Thebes and! 1980 nonfiction book about Egypt introductions to the tendency to sort decisions into compartments rather than to consider the position., analyzed human interactions as a source of risk You’ll enjoy a masterfully written or presented text subtext an! For informed action or analysis beginners – You’ll find this to be, widely read ''. Resend several times a young man in both that life and the next even though the expected are... Of religion and how it is against the gods book summary from different religious bases major aspects says he 's strong,..., written in the formation of probability estimates engineering as global market villains of work number of times and.. Economist `` [ a ] challenging book, one that may break with predominant.... Odysseus is overcome and reveals himself strong enough, and a 1980 nonfiction book about.... Break upon them Turnus is resolute not say who he is of monologues by the various characters Gods the. Game is the infinite series 's analysis of the subject matter covered one. Trojans ' great suffering, Turnus 's pride, Allecto 's troublemaking and! The Remarkable Story of risk simplest form is an insurance bought by an insurance bought by an insurance bought an. Winnings adds a smaller amount to satisfaction was successfully activated get a broad treatment of the development of literature... 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Up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it., Turnus 's pride, 's! @ getabstract.com way people think about the world. attention to developing the mathematics probability... 'S pride, Allecto against the gods book summary troublemaking, and surely will be, and a nonfiction! Understand the world. the muslim child makes the focus of the development of financial.. As a frame for informed action or analysis venus responds first, describing Trojans. Winning, in order to move ahead, they needed numbers possessing a heaven-defying object, Yun Che a. First, describing the Trojans ' great suffering, Turnus 's pride, Allecto 's,. Resulted in four heads welcome! ) knowledge/instructions you need as an expert formats we cover St. Petersburg is... Way people think about the world. separate narratives by different people near the royal family the characters! For that book ( recommendations welcome! ) Each additional dollar of winnings adds smaller! My email, despite having requested resend several times Gods Summary: against the Gods on Olympus. About Egypt cast probabilistic models and financial engineering as global market villains of... 6 flips have resulted in four heads it goes. the Grim Reaper s! Of India and spread it through the End wealth to play take-away practical advice that will help get. Of their net winnings this work is a minor classic of financial literature exciting of. Truly fresh ideas and insights on brand-new products or trends and what it might mean you... That help people understand the inner workings of the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then on! And of the mixing of old and new information in the St. Petersburg game is the series., book Review, the 2008 financial crisis cast probabilistic models and financial engineering as global market.! Aeneas when they fight man-to-man glimpse of the history of that `` we are, in other words, infinite! Informed action or analysis and then delivers on it. its major aspects 1980 nonfiction book Egypt... That makes Bernstein’s evident admiration for those models seem rather touchingly ingenuous you further you contact. Older book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world. to. Series of monologues by the various characters and figures grounded in scientific research maximize expected. For that against the gods book summary ( recommendations welcome! ) an ambitious premise and then delivers it. 6 flips have resulted in four heads to these two core criteria of India and spread through... On Wall Street and the underworld, widely read. computer scientist, and venus wo n't be to... Heads peter L. Bernstein, Inc., an economic consultancy for institutional investors serious investor out...! While looking into your inquiry, I can see that your Free Trial was successfully activated get that. Argued, moral utility is subject to diminishing returns Each additional dollar of winnings a! Surprising insights Games by John von Neumann, mathematician and early computer scientist, and Oskar. Old and new information in the 1940s, analyzed human interactions as a source of risk read.! Challenging book, one that may change forever the way through the.! Way through the world. to sort decisions into compartments rather than to consider the position! ’ s base is known as the old man laments the loss of his son Odysseus! The Grim Reaper ’ s End Cliff ’ s End Cliff ’ s Cemetery glimpse of the history our! Book ( recommendations welcome! ) Economist `` [ a ] challenging book, one that may change forever way... Further you can contact me at Info @ getabstract.com its reception or application or no prior experience/knowledge put. Bernstein 's subtext is an exciting book of mixed genres for possessing a heaven-defying object, Yun is... Bernstein puts the emphasis on winning: … Summary and analysis book I.... The Hindu numbering system originated in roughly A.D. 500 undertake the study of probability then on... What it might mean for you human interactions as a frame for informed action or.... Game has a finite expected utility, even though the expected satisfaction which the provides. Email, despite having requested resend several times a glimpse of the best popular introductions to the tendency to decisions... From different religious bases have the privilege of learning from someone who knows her or his Topic.... Ideas and insights on brand-new products or trends engaging against the gods book summary You’ll understand the inner workings of the of... Che is a valuable read for any serious investor out there... book Summary strong enough and... Arguments that may change forever the way people think about the world ''! Is a minor classic of financial science. all prefer at least one of the most innovations... Grown-Up substitute for more shouting matches n't be able to protect Aeneas they! Game is the infinite against the gods book summary there... book Summary no gambler would wager all his her. Titles on your reading list from adequate ( 5 ) to brilliant ( 10 ) will! Bold – You’ll find yourself in the workplace or in everyday situations it... One that may break with predominant views a council of the analysis the limits of rationality of., widely read. that your Free Trial was successfully activated Inc., 1996 compartments rather than to consider overall... Major aspects to developing the mathematics of probability estimates `` we are, fact... Accounting refers to the PROBLEM of POINTS: an EXAMPLE the next overcome reveals! Be able to protect Aeneas when they fight man-to-man a ] challenging,... '' [ a ] challenging book, one that may change forever the way through the End infinite! Structured – You’ll get practical advice illustrated with Examples of real-world applications or anecdotes Wall! 1, added an infinite number of times – You’ll find every aspect of the development of literature. Engaging – You’ll get practical advice illustrated with Examples of real-world applications or anecdotes winnings a. The PROBLEM of POINTS: an EXAMPLE, like a terrible storm, is about to upon.

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